Arrival Pulse
How Arrival Pulse works
Arrival Pulse turns the international arrival schedule into an estimate of how many passengers reach entry immigration each hour. It is a flight-derived forecast, not a measured queue.
Inputs
Scheduled, estimated and actual arrival times; origin country; aircraft type; codeshare relationships; cancellations and diversions. Only international commercial passenger arrivals count.
Passengers per flight
Seats × load factor × entry-processing share, each a bounded range with declared provenance. We never claim actual passenger counts.
Timing
Gate arrival, then deplaning and the walk or bus to the hall, spread over minutes. Taxi-in is added once and only when we start from a landing time.
Scenario ranges
A seeded ensemble of scenarios gives a 10th to 90th percentile range. We call these scenario ranges until held-out evaluation shows calibration.
Pressure bands
Light, moderate, busy and very busy rank hours relative to each other within the forecast window. They are not counter utilisation and not a wait time.
Wait minutes
Disabled. Officer staffing and processing rates are unobserved, so publishing a wait time would be a guess dressed as a number.
Traveller reports
Anonymous observations with a coarse lane and clearly labelled durations. Shown separately from the forecast.
Data and budget
Snapshots are refreshed on a schedule and shared by everyone. Your searches never trigger a paid data call.
ap-model-0.1.0 · ap-assumptions-0.1.0
| Assumption | low / mode / high |
|---|---|
| Load factor | 0.62 / 0.8 / 0.92 |
| Entry-processing share | 0.55 / 0.72 / 0.88 |
| Taxi-in (min) | 6 / 10 / 16 |
| Deplaning start (min) | 4 / 7 / 12 |
| Deplaning per 100 seats (min) | 3 / 4.5 / 6.5 |
| Walk or bus to hall (min) | 7 / 12 / 22 |
| Schedule delay prior (min) | -8 / 4 / 35 |
| Unknown-type seats | 120 / 180 / 300 |
| Scenarios per snapshot | 48 |
| Band percentiles (moderate / busy / very busy) | 35 / 65 / 85 |
Provisional priors declared in code. They are not measured BKK statistics and are replaced as calibration data arrives.